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Making Predictions

This guide explains how to make predictions using your fund's capital on PolyFund, including the technical process of how predictions are executed and fulfilled.

Prediction Workflow Overview​

Step 1: Navigate to Markets​

Access the Markets page within PolyFund to view all available prediction markets.

  • Markets are organized by categories (Politics, Sports, Crypto, etc.)
  • Each market shows current probabilities for various outcomes
  • You can filter markets by resolution timeframe, category, or search terms

Step 2: Select a Market​

Click on a market to view detailed information:

  • Question being predicted (e.g., "Who will win the 2024 US Election?")
  • Available outcomes (e.g., "Democrats," "Republicans")
  • Current probabilities and implied odds
  • Market liquidity and volume
  • Resolution criteria and source
  • Resolution timeline

Step 3: Choose Your Prediction​

For each market:

  1. Review the available outcomes
  2. Research and analyze the probabilities
  3. Select the outcome you believe is mispriced
  4. Determine your position size based on conviction and risk management

Step 4: Execute the Trade​

  1. Enter the amount you wish to allocate to this prediction
  2. Review the expected payout based on current odds
  3. Confirm the transaction
  4. Monitor your position in your fund dashboard

Technical Order Process​

When you submit a prediction, the system follows this specific technical process:

  1. Order Creation: You create a bet on behalf of your fund
  2. Order Listing: The bet enters the open orders system and remains live for 15 minutes
  3. Resolution Attempt: Resolvers on the backend pick up your order if it's profitable for them to fulfill
  4. Order Fulfillment:
    • If completed successfully:
      • The prediction becomes live
      • ERC-1155 tokens representing your position are transferred to your fund address
      • You can track these under the "Positions" tab
    • If the order fails to be resolved within the 15-minute window:
      • It's marked as failed
      • No funds are used
      • You can attempt to place the order again

Note: Not all orders are guaranteed to be fulfilled. Market conditions, liquidity, and order size may affect fulfillment probability.

Monitoring Your Positions​

After placing successful predictions, you can track them in several ways:

Positions Tab​

The Positions tab shows:

  • All active positions across markets
  • Current value of each position
  • Profit/loss indicators
  • Time until market resolution

Individual Position Details​

Click on any position to see:

  • Entry price and current price
  • Potential profit at resolution
  • Market status updates
  • Option to sell position (if available)

Prediction Best Practices​

  • Market Selection: Focus on markets where you have an information edge
  • Probability Assessment: Compare your estimated probabilities to the market's implied odds
  • Order Timing: Be aware of when information might move markets
  • Position Sizing: Adjust size based on your confidence level and risk tolerance
  • Patience: Not every order will be filled; be prepared to adjust and resubmit

Next Steps​